Over the course of this four-day weekend (Valentines Day and Presidents Day included), we entertain four new releases: Sonic the Hedgehog, The Photograph, Fantasy Island, and Downhill. When predicting the performance of these newcomers, I’d like to apply the rule of three…Downhill is being excluded because no one wants to see that. The rule of three states when there are three new releases at the box office, one will over-perform, one will perform in line with expectations, and one will underperform. I believe Sonic the Hedgehog will over-perform, and with momentum on its side, it looks like Paramount made the right call in pulling the film and fixing Sonic’s teeth. The Photograph, the only romantic film being released this Valentine’s Day, should do fine off of that reason alone, but the solid reviews do help. Lastly, Fantasy Island, which held no Thursday previews and doesn’t seem to be very good, appears to be heading for a lackluster performance at the box office…and expectations weren’t that high to begin with. So, do I have any clue about what I’m talking about? I guess we’ll find out.
| Rank | Film | Gross ($) | % Change (from previous weekend) |
| 1 | Onward | 19,559,930 | -50% |
| 2 | Bloodshot | 16,800,000 | N/A |
| 3 | The Invisible Man | 9,230,727 | -39% |
| 4 | I Still Believe | 8,580,000 | N/A |
| 5 | Sonic the Hedgehog | 4,391,318 | -43% |
| 6 | The Hunt | 4,350,000 | N/A |
| 7 | The Way Back | 4,248,563 | -48% |
| 8 | Call of the Wild | 3,651,698 | -46% |
| 9 | Emma. | 2,787,355 | -42% |
| 10 | Bad Boys for Life | 1,873,693 | -38% |
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